Beranda Dunia Investors raise bets on September interest rate cut after UK inflation rises...

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Investors raise bets on September interest rate cut after UK inflation rises by less than expected – business live | Business

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14 Agustus 2024

Investors raise bets on September interest rate cut

Newsflash: City investors are raising their bets that the Bank of England could cut interest rates in September.

The money markets now indicate that there’s a 45% chance that Bank Rate is cut to 4.75% next month, from its current level of 5%, and a 55% chance that borrowing costs are unchanged.

That follows this morning’s data showing that inflation rose by less than expected in July, to 2.2% – below City forecasts of 2.3%.

Before this morning’s data, a September rate cut was only a 36% probability, according to City pricing.

Traders also now expect two rate cuts by the end of this year – previously, only one cut was fully ‘priced in’, with a second seen as likely.

As flagged at 7.11am, the BoE will be reassured that service sector inflation slowed last month, to 5.2%:

Capital Economics explains:

Importantly for the Bank of England, the decline in services inflation from 5.7% to 5.2% was much bigger than anyone anticipated. That was well below the 5.6% rate forecast by the Bank in August, although closer to our own forecast of 5.4%.

However, Aaron Hussein, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management , suggests the Bank is unlikely to cut in September:

‘Today’s inflation print will reassure members of the committee that voted for a rate cut last month that they may finally be taming the inflation beast. While headline inflation ticked up as favourable base effects fade, services inflation – a crucial measure of domestically generated inflationary pressure – moderated. This coupled with moderating wage growth, suggests that inflation may finally be heading in the right direction.’
‘However, with economic growth on a cyclical upswing since the start of the and the labour market remaining resilient, their remains a risk that cutting too quickly will fan the inflation flames. We therefore think it’s unlikely that the Bank will follow up its August cut with a cut in September. Absent any material shock to growth, this cutting cycle is likely to be gradual with a quarterly cadence most likely.
Investors banking on imminent rate cuts will therefore be disappointed.’

UK house price inflation was unchanged in June, while tenants continued to be hit by rising rents.

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New data from the ONS shows that UK house prices increased by 2.7%, to £288,000, in the 12 months to June 2024, matching the level in the year to May.

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Average house prices increased in England to £305,000 (2.4%), in Wales to £216,000 (1.8%), and in Scotland to £192,000 (4.3%).

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Average UK house prices increased by 2.7%, to £288,000 in the year to June, unchanged from the revised estimate for the 12 months to May.
Read the release ➡️ pic.twitter.com/LhshQlBICg
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 14, 2024

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But rents are rising at a faster rate. Average price rents jumped by 8.6% in the year to July, which also matches June’s data.

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Average rents increased to £1,319 (8.6%) in England, £748 (7.9%) in Wales, and £965 (8.2%) in Scotland, in the 12 months to July 2024, the ONS reports.

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In England, rents inflation was highest in London (9.7%) and lowest in the North East (6.1%), in the 12 months to July 2024.

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Shadow chancellor Jeremy Hunt says today’s inflation figures showed more needed to be done to keep prices under control.

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Under Hunt’s stewardship of the economy, inflation soared to 11% before falling back, as the economy was buffered by the surge in energy costs.

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Today, he offers his successor, Rachel Reeves, some advice:

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“Today’s figures show how important it is that the new Labour Government follows the path of the previous Conservative government and focus on keeping inflation low.
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“In government, we took the difficult decisions to reduce inflation from 11.1% to the Bank of England’s target of 2.0% – paving the way for the first interest rate cut in four years.
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“However, there is clearly more to be done to keep inflation down.
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“The Chancellor must not use this data as an excuse to break her promises and hike up taxes – tax rises she had planned all along.”
\n

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I’m reminded of this rather fine cartoon from March, by the brilliant Ella Baron:

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Thursday's @thetimes cartoonhttps://t.co/uYQFQl3pD6 #jeremyhunt #inflation pic.twitter.com/JGv5iDfivG
— Ella Baron (@EBaronCartoons) March 20, 2024

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The price of hotels saw a monthly fall of 6.4% in July, compared with a rise of 8.2% a year earlier, the ONS reports.

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That pulled the annual inflation rate for UK accommodation services down to 3.9% in July from 9.8%.

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Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, suggests recent pop star tours are a factor influencing hotel costs:

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\n
The Taylor Swift effect also appears to have a slight hand in these figures, as the main downwards pressure on inflation was a fall in hotel room costs from June, when she was on her UK tour.
\n
Pop star Pink’s UK appearances also saw spikes in prices in some cities in June. It now seems more unlikely that the surge-pricing effect will turn into a recurrent inflationary pressure, as it clearly depends on the brightness of the stars.
\n

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Hotel prices had jumped by 8.8% in June – a month in which Swift held seven concerts in the UK on her Eras Tour. She plays five dates at Wembley later this month.

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The pound has taken a knock from this morning’s inflation data, as bets increased slightly on further rate cuts this year.

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Sterling dropped by a third of a cent to $1.2825, down from $1.2858 just before 7am.

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pound against the US dollar today”,”caption”:”The pound against the US dollar today”,”credit”:”Photograph: LSEG”}}),”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1723618972000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”03.02 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1723619433000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”03.10 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1723619433000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”03.10 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”03.10″,”title”:”Pound drops”,”contributors”:(),”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 14 Aug 2024 07.15 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Wed 14 Aug 2024 01.41 EDT”},{“id”:”66bc52068f081edd5aa0f3ee”,”elements”:({“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Newsflash: City investors are raising their bets that the Bank of England could cut interest rates in September.

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The money markets now indicate that there’s a 45% chance that Bank Rate is cut to 4.75% next month, from its current level of 5%, and a 55% chance that borrowing costs are unchanged.

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That follows this morning’s data showing that inflation rose by less than expected in July, to 2.2% – below City forecasts of 2.3%.

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Before this morning’s data, a September rate cut was only a 36% probability, according to City pricing.

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Traders also now expect two rate cuts by the end of this year – previously, only one cut was fully ‘priced in’, with a second seen as likely.

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As flagged at 7.11am, the BoE will be reassured that service sector inflation slowed last month, to 5.2%:

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Capital Economics explains:

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\n
Importantly for the Bank of England, the decline in services inflation from 5.7% to 5.2% was much bigger than anyone anticipated. That was well below the 5.6% rate forecast by the Bank in August, although closer to our own forecast of 5.4%.
\n

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However, Aaron Hussein, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management , suggests the Bank is unlikely to cut in September:

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\n
‘Today’s inflation print will reassure members of the committee that voted for a rate cut last month that they may finally be taming the inflation beast. While headline inflation ticked up as favourable base effects fade, services inflation – a crucial measure of domestically generated inflationary pressure – moderated. This coupled with moderating wage growth, suggests that inflation may finally be heading in the right direction.’
\n
‘However, with economic growth on a cyclical upswing since the start of the and the labour market remaining resilient, their remains a risk that cutting too quickly will fan the inflation flames. We therefore think it’s unlikely that the Bank will follow up its August cut with a cut in September. Absent any material shock to growth, this cutting cycle is likely to be gradual with a quarterly cadence most likely.
\n
Investors banking on imminent rate cuts will therefore be disappointed.’
\n

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Here’s a breakdown of the various annual price changes that led to the UK’s inflation rate rising to 2.2% per year in July.

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\n
Food and non-alcoholic beverages: +1.5%

\n
Alcohol and tobacco: +7.3%

\n
Clothing and footwear: +2.1%

\n
Housing and household services: -1.5%

\n
Furniture and household goods: -1.7%

\n
Health: +5.7%

\n
Transport: +0.2%

\n
Communication: +4.5%

\n
Recreation and culture: +3.70%

\n
Education: +4.5%

\n
Restaurants and hotels: +4.9%

\n
Miscellaneous goods and services: +3.5%

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The inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverage prices remained at 1.5% per year in July.

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That matches June’s reading, which was the joint lowest annual rate since October 2021.

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But, this is the first time since March 2023 that the annual rate of food and drink inflation hasn’t fallen.

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At its peak, the rate hit 19.2% in March 2023, when shortages of salad vegetables pushed up prices.

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chart showing the annual inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages.”,”credit”:”Photograph: ONS”}}),”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1723616849000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.27 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1723617115000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.31 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1723617115000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.31 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.31″,”title”:”Food inflation stops falling”,”contributors”:(),”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 14 Aug 2024 07.15 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Wed 14 Aug 2024 01.41 EDT”},{“id”:”66bc4cb78f08cf3dfc9464ae”,”elements”:({“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It’s important to remember that the falls in inflation we saw in the first half of 2024 did not mean that the cost of living was falling – simply that the prices of a basket of goods and services rose at a slower rate, compared with 12 months earlier.

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And today’s inflation report has a graphic example of the surge in prices in the last few years – gas prices in July were around 68% higher than in March 2021. Electricity prices have gained 45% over that time.

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format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=91aedc587f862bc917edd2669f9955ed”,”width”:1960},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f77bb9b76cdb15fc633cd0dcc521a0bd7a7aacbd/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=740&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5f6c8b0834e5dddd9d09cd5f9606cca9″,”width”:740},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f77bb9b76cdb15fc633cd0dcc521a0bd7a7aacbd/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=740&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=58453eb29ae20707a2a501792082f1c1″,”width”:1480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f77bb9b76cdb15fc633cd0dcc521a0bd7a7aacbd/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=660&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3024a5f933ac31fbb02617ca39d7ce37″,”width”:660},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f77bb9b76cdb15fc633cd0dcc521a0bd7a7aacbd/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=660&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=608c1c4158dce82d92d6082cc9f895d7″,”width”:1320},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f77bb9b76cdb15fc633cd0dcc521a0bd7a7aacbd/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=480&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=6548b44cebc5470b97332c73cf252f54″,”width”:480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f77bb9b76cdb15fc633cd0dcc521a0bd7a7aacbd/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=480&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=9ebdb40f0df31293dc2d806823f54adb”,”width”:960})}),”data”:{“alt”:”A chart showing gas and electricity prices”,”credit”:”Photograph: ONS”}}),”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1723616439000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.20 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1723616759000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.25 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1723616759000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.25 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.25″,”title”:”Gas prices 68% higher than in March 2021″,”contributors”:(),”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 14 Aug 2024 07.15 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Wed 14 Aug 2024 01.41 EDT”},{“id”:”66bc496b8f08cf3dfc94649b”,”elements”:({“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Following this morning’s rise in the UK inflation rate to 2.2%, ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner says:

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\n
“Inflation ticked up a little in July as although domestic energy costs fell, they fell by less than a year ago.
\n
“This was partially offset by hotel costs, which fell in July after strong growth in June.
\n
“The increase in cost of goods leaving factories slowed a little in the year to July, led by falling petrol prices. Meanwhile, raw materials prices picked up for the first time in over a year, driven by smaller falls in gas and electricity costs.”
\n

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Inflation in the UK’s service sector has slowed, today’s data shows.

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The CPI services annual rate fell from 5.7% to 5.2% – that should please hawks at the Bank of England, who fear that services prices will remain sticky.

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On the other side of the economy – goods prices fell at a slower rate. The CPI goods annual rate rose from -1.4% to -0.6% in July.

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Core inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) has slowed.

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Core CPI rose by 3.3% in the 12 months to July 2024, down from 3.5% in June.

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This may seem like a bizarre measure if you’re a family whose budget is mostly spent on essentials such as eating and keeping warm.

“,”elementId”:”2a17e79d-2efe-43e9-8545-6c98bc48b073″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But it’s an important measure of underlying price pressures.

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Newsflash: Inflation across the UK has risen, as feared, for the first time this year.

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The consumer price index, which measures changes in the cost of living, rose by 2.2% in the year to July.

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That’s an increase from 2% in both May and June, and the first increase in inflation since last December (when CPI inflation was 4%).

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It takes the rate of price increases back above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

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But it’s not quite as high as the 2.3% which City economists expected.

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CPI rose by 2.2% in the 12 months to July 2024, up from 2.0% in June 2024, mainly driven by prices of gas and electricity falling by less than a year ago.
Read the release ➡️ pic.twitter.com/X3P2QsS4Kv
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 14, 2024

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The Office for National Statistics says that the largest upward contribution to this month’s change in inflation came from housing and household services where prices of gas and electricity fell by less than they did last year.

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But…the largest downward contribution came from restaurants and hotels, where prices of hotels fell this year having risen last year. That’s a surprise, as economists had suggested that surge pricing at hotels would add to inflation.

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Ahead of the inflation data at 7am, a new report has shown how poorer families have been hit by ‘cheapflation’ in the cost of living crisis.

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Britain’s poorest households saw the bill for their weekly shop rise by far more than that of the rich during the height of the cost of living crisis as the sharpest price increases fell on cheaper brands, research reveals.

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The study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) found the least well-off had been hardest hit by “cheapflation” in the 2021-23 period – paying 29.1% more for their food, compared with 23.5% for better off households.

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The report – which lays bare the disproportionate impact of rising food prices on the poor – has been released to coincide with the latest cost of living figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) coming out on Wednesday, which are forecast to show the first increase in the headline annual inflation rate since December last year.

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The IFS said grocery items that were among the cheapest 10% in each spending category, including staples such as milk, pasta and butter, rose by 36% over the two years to last September, while more expensive versions of the same items rose by just 16%.

“,”elementId”:”cc17594a-05de-4ae9-931f-f05c5caacbb0″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Revealed: how UK’s poor paid price of ‘cheapflation’ in cost of living crisis”,”elementId”:”2af4b937-cb22-4298-b201-67953229976b”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:” how UK’s poor paid price of ‘cheapflation’ in cost of living crisis”,”contributors”:({“name”:”Larry Elliott”,”imageUrl”:” 14 Aug 2024 07.15 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Wed 14 Aug 2024 01.41 EDT”},{“id”:”66bc3d178f08e4bf5d12c7bc”,”elements”:({“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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We’re about to learn whether the UK’s cost of living squeeze intensified last month.

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Inflation data, due at 7am, is expected to show that prices rose faster than the Bank of England’s 2% target.

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City economists predict the CPI inflation rate will rise to 2.3% per year in July, from 2% in May and June, partly pushed up by fast-rising prices for air fares, package holidays and hotels.

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That would be the first increase in UK inflation this year – a blow to policymakers’ efforts to keep inflation sustainably down to target.

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Rob Wood, chief economist at City firm Pantheon, explains how hotels could push up inflation:

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“The price of a one-night hotel stay has been very strong this year, partly reflecting a new seasonal pattern since Covid… as well hotels likely charging a form of surge (demand-based) pricing.
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“The ONS surveys only about 100 hotels, which means outliers, such as a Welsh hotel price in June boosted by demand from a Pink concert, can distort the figures.
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Energy bills could also have an upward impact on inflation. There was a smaller decline in household energy prices in July compared with the same month a year ago, when prices fell sharply.

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Data yesterday morning showed that grocery price inflation has risen for the first time since March last year, as supermarkets nudged prices higher.

“,”elementId”:”20ff3732-d3f3-4c50-ab1c-4214f62a05fd”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Grocery price inflation in Great Britain rises for first time in 17 months”,”elementId”:”59d085c2-7015-4dfa-aa7c-9f1ff5158ecd”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/13/great-britain-grocery-price-inflation-rises-supermarket-prices”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

A rise in inflation could make the Bank of England less willing to consider a second cut in UK interest rates, having lowered Bank Rate from 5.25% to 5% earlier this month.

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Their counterparts in New Zealand, incidentally, have just announced their first rate cut in four years.

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Earlier today, the Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. The pace of further easing will depend on the Committee’s confidence that pricing behaviour remains consistent with a low inflation environment, and that inflation… pic.twitter.com/DbnUvJTVm5
— Reserve Bank of NZ (@ReserveBankofNZ) August 14, 2024

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Earlier this week, BoE policymaker Catherine Mann warned it was too early to think the battle to calm inflation is over.

“,”elementId”:”6d3cce33-4f42-4bef-b962-cc58a60fc99f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Battle against UK inflation is far from over, says Bank of England policymaker”,”elementId”:”08a902ee-3704-4f72-b379-47b7babd8fbd”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/12/uk-inflation-bank-of-england-catherine-mann”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The money markets currently predict the BoE will leave UK interest rates on hold in September, but probably cut again in November – let’s see if today’s data changes that view….

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The agenda

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7am BST: UK inflation report for July

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9.30am BST: UK house price inflation and rental costs

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10am BST: Eurozone Q2 GDP report (second estimate)

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1.30pm BST: US inflation report for July

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3.30pm BST: EIA crude oil inventory data

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Key events

Professor Costas Milas, of the University of Liverpool Management School, tells us why the Bank of England could cut rates again in September:

The BoE has repeatedly mentioned services inflation to justify why MPC members did not cut interest rates earlier. I plot below ‘price surprises in services inflation’ (proxied by the four-quarter difference in services inflation).
Historically, services inflation moves much faster on the way down than on the way up. This plot is telling me that, everything else equal, there is a good reason for MPC members to cut interest rates in September!

Photograph: Professor Costas Milas

The “encouraging drop” in services inflation in July may increase the probability of further rate cuts from the Bank of England in September, argues the NIESR economic research institute.

They say:

The significant fall in services inflation to 5.2% will have surprised the Bank of England who expected it to remain around 5.7%.
This, alongside the fall in core inflation to 3.3%, is a strong sign that underlying inflation dynamics are easing.

However, NIESR adds that there are reasons to be cautious…

Strong wage growth, coupled with still high core and services inflation, may mean the Bank could exercise some caution with regards to further rate cuts. Furthermore, the potential increase in the energy price cap in October could increase inflationary pressures.

⚡ OUT NOW ⚡️

The sharp drop in services #inflation may increase the probability of a September rate cut ✂️🏦 our latest CPI Inflation Tracker suggests 📊

Read more in our full analysis ⬇ 🔓 pic.twitter.com/IJL1BDP7u4

— National Institute of Economic and Social Research (@NIESRorg) August 14, 2024

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Although UK inflation picked up in July, it remains lower than in other major European economies.

Inflation in both France and Germany was clocked at 2.6% in July, on an EU-harmonised basis.

Photograph: ONS

The latest US inflation data is due at 1.30pm UK time today; economists predict US CPI was unchanged in July at 3%.

The headline rate of UK inflation looks set to “tick up mechanically” over the rest of the year.

So predicts Gabriella Dickens, G7 economist at AXA Investment Managers, who says “the tailwind from energy prices” will continue to ease.

That tailwind is caused by energy prices having fallen so sharply in 2023, meaning any further drops this year are smaller.

For example, Dickens explains, Gas and electricity prices fell by a smaller 7.8% and 6.8% respectively in July 2024, than in July 2023, 25.3% and 8.6%, leaving energy price inflation at -20.1%, compared to around 27% over the past three months.

Earlier this month, the Bank of England also predicted that inflation would rise through 2024, from its 2% target (in May and June) to around 2¾% at the turn of the year.

Photograph: Bank of England

Over in the eurozone, we have confirmation that its economic growth remained steady this spring.

Eurozone GDP rose by 0.3% in April-June, statistics body Eurostat reports, which confirms the ‘flash’ estimate released at the end of July.

That follows 0.3% growth in January-March, after stagnation in the second half of last year.

France grew by 0.3%, while Germany’s GDP fell by 0.1% – putting the eurozone’s largest member on the brink of recession.

Although City traders have raised their bets on a UK interest rate cut next month, there aren’t many economists predicting a cut as early as September.

ING developed markets economist, James Smith, predicts there will be two more interest rate cuts by Christmas, but probably later in the year than September:

He says the Bank of England will take a closee look at the slowdown in services inflation in July:

On the face of it, that looks like very welcome news which in theory, you might expect could speed up the process of lowering rates. Remember that services inflation is the main guiding light for Bank of England policy these days. But dig into the details and we suspect the Bank will be taking these figures with a pinch of salt.
“Much of this looked like noise and the BoE itself concluded that these upside surprises didn’t tell it much about the trajectory of inflation over the medium-term. Indeed, we replicated a measure of “core services” inflation, put together by the Bank of England, which excludes various items like rents and airfares, and we additionally took out hotels given the recent volatility. Back in June, this measure showed that services inflation had fallen back more aggressively than the headline metric, once those components were removed.
“Our metric of core services inflation was unchanged at 5.1%. In other words, just as the upside surprises of recent months looked like noise, it’s only fair to conclude that the same is true of this latest sharp fall in services inflation as well. We suspect that’s the conclusion the Bank is likely to reach too. That said, we still think the news on services inflation is likely to gradually improve as the year wears on. Surveys show firms are raising prices much less aggressively than they were. And that should help unlock at least one rate cut in November, and we suspect another in December. We suspect the Bank will pause at the next meeting in September.”

The smaller-than-expected rise in UK inflation in July could calm jitters over whether the Bank of England was right to cut interest rates at the start of this month.

Anthony Codling, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, told clients:

CPI in July was higher than in June, but lower than expected, which may comfort those who were nervous about the Bank Rate cut earlier this month.
We believe that the scene is set for further cuts in Bank Rate before the year is out and that falling mortgage rates will usher in a robust autumn selling season once the summer holidays draw to a close.

Average UK house price up 2.7%; rents rise faster

UK house price inflation was unchanged in June, while tenants continued to be hit by rising rents.

New data from the ONS shows that UK house prices increased by 2.7%, to £288,000, in the 12 months to June 2024, matching the level in the year to May.

Average house prices increased in England to £305,000 (2.4%), in Wales to £216,000 (1.8%), and in Scotland to £192,000 (4.3%).

Average UK house prices increased by 2.7%, to £288,000 in the year to June, unchanged from the revised estimate for the 12 months to May.

Read the release ➡️ pic.twitter.com/LhshQlBICg

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 14, 2024

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But rents are rising at a faster rate. Average price rents jumped by 8.6% in the year to July, which also matches June’s data.

Average rents increased to £1,319 (8.6%) in England, £748 (7.9%) in Wales, and £965 (8.2%) in Scotland, in the 12 months to July 2024, the ONS reports.

In England, rents inflation was highest in London (9.7%) and lowest in the North East (6.1%), in the 12 months to July 2024.

Today’s inflation data could mean that UK rail fares rise by 3.6% next year… but the government insists no decision has been made yet.

Annual rail fares have historically been based on July’s change in the Retail Price Index – a rather discredited inflation measure, which has lost its status as an accredited official statistic.

RPI rose by 3.6% in the year to July, the Office for National Statistics reported this morning.

The Government is planning to announce fare rises later this year, and a Department for Transport spokesman has said that the government wants to make prices ‘as affordable as possible’.

“The Transport Secretary is delivering the biggest overhaul of our railways in a generation, to provide better services for passengers, while saving millions of pounds in fees paid to the private sector.
“No decisions have been made on next year’s rail fares but our aim is that prices are as affordable as possible for passengers.”

Nearly half the fares on Britain’s railways are regulated by the Westminster, Scottish and Welsh Governments, including season tickets on most commuter journeys, some off-peak return tickets on long-distance routes, and flexible tickets for travel around major cities.

Train operators set rises in unregulated fares, although these are likely to be very close to changes in regulated ticket prices.

Seperately in the rail industry, there are hopes that a deal will be struck today betweenn the train drivers’ union, Aslef, and the government, to end long-running strike action.

Officials 'hopeful' of deal to end train strikes. The adults are in charge now and actually negotiating. Transport secretary Louise Haigh said she was "committed to resetting industrial relations". https://t.co/jbROh74yAO

— Dave Watson (@UnisonDave) August 14, 2024

\n\n”}}”>

Officials ‘hopeful’ of deal to end train strikes. The adults are in charge now and actually negotiating. Transport secretary Louise Haigh said she was “committed to resetting industrial relations”. https://t.co/jbROh74yAO
— Dave Watson (@UnisonDave) August 14, 2024

Today’s inflation figures showed the cost-of-living crisis had not ended, points out Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney:

“Today’s figures are a stark reminder that the cost-of-living crisis is far from over. Years of Conservative chaos have devastated families up and down the country as countless people are still paying the price of Conservative mismanagement.
“From mortgage payments and rail fares to the cost of food in supermarkets people are feeling a hangover from hell all thanks to successive Conservative prime ministers.
“The Government needs to tackle the cost-of-living crisis head-on, starting by investing in our farmers to bring down food prices, saving families money by expanding free school meals to all children in poverty and implementing a one-year freeze to rail fares.”

Hunt: Government must do more to keep inflation down

Shadow chancellor Jeremy Hunt says today’s inflation figures showed more needed to be done to keep prices under control.

Under Hunt’s stewardship of the economy, inflation soared to 11% before falling back, as the economy was buffered by the surge in energy costs.

Today, he offers his successor, Rachel Reeves, some advice:

“Today’s figures show how important it is that the new Labour Government follows the path of the previous Conservative government and focus on keeping inflation low.
“In government, we took the difficult decisions to reduce inflation from 11.1% to the Bank of England’s target of 2.0% – paving the way for the first interest rate cut in four years.
“However, there is clearly more to be done to keep inflation down.
“The Chancellor must not use this data as an excuse to break her promises and hike up taxes – tax rises she had planned all along.”

I’m reminded of this rather fine cartoon from March, by the brilliant Ella Baron:

Thursday's @thetimes cartoonhttps://t.co/uYQFQl3pD6 #jeremyhunt #inflation pic.twitter.com/JGv5iDfivG

— Ella Baron (@EBaronCartoons) March 20, 2024

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Investors raise bets on September interest rate cut after UK inflation rises by less than expected – business live | Business

Investors raise bets on September interest rate cut

The agenda

Average UK house price up 2.7%; rents rise faster

Hunt: Government must do more to keep inflation down

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